Hoegh-Guldberg, O. et al. Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification. Science 318, 1737–1742 (2007).
Hughes, T. P. et al. Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals. Nature 543, 373–377 (2017).
Anthony, K. R. N., Hoogenboom, M. O., Maynard, J. A., Grottoli, A. G. & Middlebrook, R. Energetics approach to predicting mortality risk from environmental stress: a case study of coral bleaching. Funct. Ecol. 23, 539–550 (2009).
McClanahan, T. R. et al. Western Indian Ocean coral communities: bleaching responses and susceptibility to extinction. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 337, 1–13 (2007).
Littman, R., Willis, B. L. & Bourne, D. G. Metagenomic analysis of the coral holobiont during a natural bleaching event on the Great Barrier Reef. Environ. Microbiol. Rep. 3, 651–660 (2011).
Ziegler, M., Seneca, F. O., Yum, L. K., Palumbi, S. R. & Voolstra, C. R. Bacterial community dynamics are linked to patterns of coral heat tolerance. Nat. Commun. 8, 14213 (2017).
Ainsworth, T. D. A. et al. Climate change disables coral bleaching protection on the Great Barrier Reef. Science 352, 338–342 (2016).
Grottoli, A. G. et al. The cumulative impact of annual coral bleaching can turn some coral species winners into losers. Glob. Change Biol. 20, 3823–3833 (2014).
McClanahan, T. R., Weil, E., Cortes, J., Baird, A. H. & Ateweberhan, M. in Coral Bleaching (eds van Oppen, M. J. H. & Lough, J. M.) 121–138 (Ecological Studies Vol. 205, Springer, 2009).
Frieler, K. et al. Limiting global warming to 2 °C is unlikely to save most coral reefs. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 165–170 (2013).
Eakin, C. M. et al. Caribbean corals in crisis: record thermal stress, bleaching, and mortality in 2005. PLoS ONE 5, e13969 (2010).
Kleypas, J. A., Danabasoglu, G. & Lough, J. M. Potential role of the ocean thermostat in determining regional differences in coral reef bleaching events. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L03613 (2008).
Hughes, T. P. et al. Spatial and temporal patterns of mass bleaching of corals in the Anthropocene. Science 359, 80–83 (2018).
Brainard, R. E. et al. Ecological impacts of the 2015/16 El Niño in the central equatorial Pacific. Bull. Am. Mineral. Soc. 99, S21–S26 (2018).
Guest, J. R. et al. Contrasting patterns of coral bleaching susceptibility in 2010 suggest an adaptive response to thermal stress. PLoS ONE 7, e33353 (2012).
McClanahan, T. R. Changes in coral sensitivity to thermal anomalies. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 570, 71–85 (2017).
Heron, S. F. et al. Validation of reef-scale thermal stress satellite products for coral bleaching monitoring. Remote Sens. 8, 59 (2016).
Kayanne, H. Validation of degree heating weeks as a coral bleaching index in the northwestern Pacific. Coral Reefs 36, 63–70 (2017).
Maina, J., McClanahan, T. R., Venus, V., Ateweberhan, M. & Madin, J. Global gradients of coral exposure to environmental stresses and implications for local management. PLoS ONE 6, e23064 (2011).
Beyer, H. L. et al. Risk‐sensitive planning for conserving coral reefs under rapid climate change. Conserv. Lett. 11, e12587 (2018).
Edmunds, P. J. et al. Persistence and change in community composition of reef corals through present, past, and future climates. PLoS ONE 9, e107525 (2014).
Zhang, N., Feng, M., Hendon, H. H., Hobday, A. J. & Zinke, J. Opposite polarities of ENSO drive distinct patterns of coral bleaching potentials in the southeast Indian Ocean. Sci. Rep. 7, 2443 (2017).
Skirving, W. J. et al. The relentless march of mass coral bleaching: a global perspective of changing heat stress. Coral Reefs 38, 547–557 (2019).
Hughes, T. P. et al. Climate change, human impacts, and the resilience of coral reefs. Science 301, 929–933 (2003).
Hoegh-Guldberg, O. Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world’s coral reefs. Mar. Freshw. Res. 50, 839–866 (1999).
Thompson, D. M. & van Woesik, R. Corals escape bleaching in regions that recently and historically experienced frequent thermal stress. Proc. R. Soc. B 276, 2893–2901 (2009).
West, J. M. & Salm, R. V. Resistance and resilience to coral bleaching: implications for coral reef conservation and management. Conserv. Biol. 17, 956–967 (2003).
McClanahan, T. R., Muthiga, N. A. & Mangi, S. Coral and algal changes after the 1998 coral bleaching: interaction with reef management and herbivores on Kenyan reefs. Coral Reefs 19, 380–391 (2001).
Graham, N. A., Jennings, S., MacNeil, M. A., Mouillot, D. & Wilson, S. K. Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs. Nature 518, 94–97 (2015).
McClanahan, T. R. & Maina, J. Response of coral assemblages to the interaction between natural temperature variation and rare warm-water events. Ecosystems 6, 551–563 (2003).
Diaz-Pulido, G. & McCook, L. J. The fate of bleached corals: patterns and dynamics of algal recruitment. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 232, 115–128 (2002).
Veron, J. Corals of the World Vols 1–3 (Australian Institute of Marine Science, 2000).
NOAA Coral Reef Watch (NOAA Satellite and Information Service, accessed 20 January 2017); http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/hdf/index.php
Donner, S. D., Skirving, W. J., Little, C. M., Oppenheimer, M. & Hoegh-Gulberg, O. Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 11, 2251–2265 (2005).
Giorgino, T. Computing and visualizing dynamic time warping alignments in R: The dtw package. J. Stat. Softw. 31, 1–24 (2009).
Bond, N. Hydrostats: Hydrologic indices for daily time series data. R package version 0.2.7 (2019); https://github.com/nickbond/hydrostats
Freeman, J. B. & Dale, R. Assessing bimodality to detect the presence of a dual cognitive process. Behav. Res. Methods 45, 83–97 (2013).
Deevi, S. modes: Find the modes and assess the modality of complex and mixture distributions, especially with big datasets. R package version 0.7.0 (2016); https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=modes
Graham, M. H. Confronting multicollinearity in ecological multilple regression. Ecology 84, 2809–2815 (2003).
Burke, L., Reytar, K., Spalding, M. & Perry, A. Reefs at Risk Revisited (World Resources Institute, 2011).
Hijmans, R. K., Phillips, S., Leathwick, J. & Elith, J. dismo: Species distribution modeling. R package version 1.1-4 (2017); https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=dismo
Elith, J., Leathwick, J. R. & Hastie, T. A working guide to boosted regression trees. J. Anim. Ecol. 77, 802–813 (2008).
Zimprich, D. Modeling change in skewed variables using mixed beta regression models. Res. Hum. Dev. 7, 9–26 (2010).
Skaug, H., Fournier, D., Nielsen, A., Magnusson, A. & Bolker, B. glmmADMB: Generalized linear mixed models using AD model builder. R package version 0.7 7 (2019); https://rdrr.io/rforge/glmmADMB/
Gelman, A. Scaling regression inputs by dividing by two standard deviations. Stat. Med. 27, 2865–2873 (2008).
Burnham, K. P. and Anderson, D. R. Model Selection and Inference: A Practical Information–Theoretic Approach 2nd edn (Springer, 2002).
Long, J. A. jtools: Analysis and presentation of social scientific data. R package version 0.9.0 (2017); https://mran.microsoft.com/snapshot/2017-12-11/web/packages/jtools/index.html
Zuur, A., Ieno, E. N., Walker, N., Saveliev, A. A. & Smith, G. M. Mixed effects models and extensions in ecology with R. Biometrics 65, 992–993 (2009).
Mantel, N. Ranking procedures for arbitrarily restricted observation. Int. Biom. Soc. 23, 65–78 (1967).
Legendre, P. & Fortin, M. J. Spatial pattern and ecological analysis. Vegetatio 80, 107–138 (1989).
Bjørnstad, O. N. ncf: Spatial nonparametric covariance functions. R package version 1.1–5 (2013); https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ncf
Canty, A. & Ripley, B. boot: Bootstrap R (S-plus) functions. R package version 1.3-22 (2019); https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/boot/boot.pdf
R Core Team R
: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2018); www.R-project.org/